Future of Red Sox Rotation On Display

One thing I really like about what Epstein's done with the Red Sox, is the collection of good, young power pitchers he's put together. In the bullpen there's Jonathan Papelbon (1.93 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) and Manny Delcarmen (2.19 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). Both strike out more than a batter an inning. Right now however, I want to take a moment to focus on the Red Sox rotation.

The heart of the Red Sox rotation, for the next three years at least, will likely by ace Josh Beckett. Beckett currently leads the league in wins (15) and is in the top ten in ERA (3.24), WHIP (1.11) and strikeouts (140). And in the current market, Josh Beckett is very reasonably priced, averaging an annual salary of less than $11 million a year through the year 2010. Josh Beckett will start game two of today's double header.

And another pitchers who figures to play a large role in future Red Sox rotations is 23-year-old Clay Buchholz. Buchholz is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He began the season at Double-A Portland where he lead his league in both ERA and strikeouts. He's since made six starts at the Triple-A level. In those starts he had an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.02 while striking out 14.26 batters for every 9 innings of work. Clay Buchholz will make his major league debut in game one of today's double header.

And there is also Daisuke Matsuzaka of course. Matsuzka is signed through 2012, and he's currently 7th in the league in wins (12) and 4th in strikeouts (164).

From youngest to oldest, Clay Buchholz is 23, Daisuke Matsuzaka is 26 and Josh Beckett is 27. All three starters will be under contract with the Red Sox through at least 2010.

That's Why You Play the Game

And with that final out, Andy Sonnanstine who was 1-8 with a 6.30 ERA coming into today's game, just earned his second career win in the majors. If this was the playoffs (the Devil Ray's in the playoffs? I know, just indulge me) I would be upset about this game. But today, even after the Red Sox failed to score the tying run from second with no outs in the 9th inning, I find it hard to be upset with the effort they gave in this game. Let's not forget, the Red Sox were down 6-0 going into the 7th inning.

There are a few things I took away from this game. First of all, how unlucky can one pitcher be? Daisuke has certainly had a strange welcome to the majors, and this game was no exception. While he isn't clear of blame for today's performance, much of what happened was behind his control. Not only were there a few bloops hits that fell in just over the heads of the infielders, but there were a couple dribbling infield singles as well. Most of this hits that he gave up weren't hit very hard.

And such bad luck isn't anything new for the Japanese import. While overall, his run support has been pretty good, the runs never seem to come at the right time. Often, the Red Sox bats are at their quietest when Daisuke's pitching is at it's best. The majority of his losses on the season qualified as a quality start (at least 6 innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or less). Over those five losses, he has an ERA of 3.07. He's also received two no decisions in games which he lasted seven innings or more while allowing a single run.

Like I said, I just can't find it in myself to be disappointed over this loss. At this point in the season, it's a success whenever the Red Sox don't lose ground. Even when the both the Red Sox and the Yankees lose, the Red Sox still come out on top because they're still shrinking the elimination number. Even with a Red Sox loss today, the magic number still went down from 39 to 38.

And for those of you who declared Gagne a bust after just three appearances, you may want to reconsider. While it's still yet to be seen whether Gagne will work out or not, three appearances isn't enough to judge any reliever. Even the best relievers struggle. In fact, in his past three appearances, Mariano Rivera has allowed at least 3 hits and one earned run in each of them. And as far as relievers go, you'd be hard pressed to find too many who are better than him.

What troubles me much more than the troubles Gagne had in Baltimore, is the slump that Kevin Youkilis is currently in. Youkilis is arguably the most underrated player on the Red Sox. With his "legendary" plate discipline, he's usually the table setter for the big bats. Since the All-Star break however, Youkilis has hit only .226 and has gotten on base at a rate of only .350. He's been in an especially vicious slump lately. Over the last 6 games he has only two hits in 24 at bats. Ouch.

5 Reasons Why Red Sox Fans Need Not Worry

1. Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. And who has the best pitching staff in the league? That's right, the Red Sox. They have arguably the best rotation in the American League (the Angels might have a case as well). Still, it's incomparable to the Yankees pitching staff, ranked in the middle of the pack in team ERA. And Yankee Stadium's 13% harder to score a run in than Fenway Park.

Remember the great duo of Pedro and Schilling that lead the Red Sox to a World Series in 2004? At this point in the season that year, they were 26-10, with a 3.80 ERA. This year's duo of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka is 28-13 with a 3.42 ERA. And both of those pitchers are on schedule to pitch at Yankee Stadium later this month.

Away from the hitting friendly atmosphere of Fenway Park, Josh Beckett is 8-1 with a 1.65 ERA. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 7-5 with a 2.99 ERA. Four of those losses were quality starts however (at least 6 innings pitched while giving up 3 runs or less).

2. Gagne's a bonus, not a necessity. The Red Sox bullpen leads the league in ERA. And they did that without any help at all from Gagne. Boston native, Manny Delcarmen has really stepped us as a premiere relief pitcher. With his 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strikeout an inning, he could easily take Gagne's role, helping Okajima set up for Papelbon.

Delcarmen, Okajima and Papelbon are merely half of the 6 relief pitchers the Red Sox have with an ERA of 3.50 or better. The others include Lopez, Snyder and 41-year-old Timlin. Don't look now, but Timlin appears to have found a fountain of youth. He's lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.38. He's allowed a run in only one of his last 14 appearances.

3. The bats aren't anything to scoff at either. The Red Sox are fifth in the league in AVG, second in OBP and third in SLG. Coco Crisp's resurgence isn't a new story. Since the All-Star break, he's hit .296/.379/.417. What are some newer stories however are the resurgences of Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Lugo's hit .325/.360/.436 since the All-Star and has this month to thank for it. In August he's been red hot, to a tune of a .341 AVG.

J.D. Drew hasn't been quite as much of a disappointment as Julio Lugo. Even when he was hitting in the mid .200's he was getting on base .100 points higher and his defense has been solid. In August, Drew is hitting .433 and getting on base in half of his at bats. Perhaps most encouraging of all is his returning power. He's slugged .600.

4. The Yankees are human. They've gone 30-10 in their last 40 games, but that's an impossible pace to play at. They're playing the best baseball that they'll likely play all season, and they're still back 4 games. The YES announcers today noted how all the Yankees hitters have gotten hot at the exact same time, but such is not the nature of hitting. Unlike pitching, hitting goes through dramatic periods of hot and cold, and going into September, the Yankees are due for some regression.

Not to mention, their white hot bats have worked to mask some rising pitching woes. Since the All-Star break, Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang has gone 4-2 with a 5.93 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Wang has had uncharacteristic control struggles while his ground out to fly out ratio has regressed from 2.78 to 1.63.

And Wang's not the only Yankees starter to struggle of late. After getting off to a good start with the Yankees, Roger Clemens has gone 2-2 since the All-Star break with a 4.45 ERA. And Phil Hughes, billed as the Yankees ace of the future, has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA.

Their bullpen was also left with a lot of question marks, after Cashman dealt off much of their bullpen depth. The Yankees have struggled with their middle relief all season, and they go into September having dealt away Mike Meyers, who lead the team in ERA, and Scott Proctor, who had the team's 5th best ERA. The Yankees may have found a legitimate set up man in Joba Chamberlain. Now they have to find a way to get to him.

5. Reinforcements are on the way! Unlike the Yankees, who were desperate enough to call up their young talent already, the Red Sox will be getting some upgrades come September. Perhaps the most exciting call up will be Clay Buchholz, who is likely to get his first major league start this Friday. Buchholz lead the Eastern League in both ERA and strikeouts before being promoted to Triple-A where he owns an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.02 in 6 starts. He's also struck out 14 batters per 9 innings of work.

And for the first time this season, the Red Sox will be getting a legitimate pinch runner off the bench in Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury has mind boggling speed and defensive ability. He had no trouble handling the majors earlier this season when he hit .375 and got on base at a rate of .444 in limited at bats.

Crisp and Matsuzaka Coming Around

I guess Coco wasn't quite dead. Sure, it took until late June but Coco Crisp is in fact beginning to kick. Well, that's not completely true. To be fair, Crisp began hitting when June began. He went 4-10 against the Yankees June 1st, 2nd and 3rd and has hit .333 in the month of June. Throughout his career, Crisp has been somewhat of a second half player. Similar to Johnny Damon, Crisp's career average after the All-Star break is actually .015 points higher than the one he has in the first half of the season.

Speaking of our old friend Johnny "Who?", Epstein looks pretty smart right now for not signing him. In year two of his contract with the Yankees, Johnny Damon's already breaking down. Over the next 3 years, the Yankees are on the hook for $39 million for a player who can barely field his position a few days a week. Coco Crisp isn't any Ichiro but he's one of the best fielding center fielders in the league and is both out-hitting and out-slugging the guy he replaced. Did I mention Crisp costs something like $10 million less?

Fortunately for the Red Sox (and Theo Epstein) the $103 million man is also starting to come around. It would be unfair to say that Daisuke Matsuzaka hasn't done well. But with analysts claiming he could contend for the Cy Young in his first major league year, anything short is bound to be a disappointment.

When the Red Sox signed Matsuzaka, I said I'd be happy if ecstatic if he posted anything lower than a 4.00 ERA in his first season in the AL East. As we approach the half way point of the season, he's almost there. After tonight's win, Matsuzaka is now 9-5 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. I think it's rather clear however, that he has the ability to be much more dominant.

Through his first 98.2 major league innings, Matsuzaka has allowed only 93 hits while striking out 102. His biggest issue to this point has been his control. His BB/9 innings pitched of 3.19 isn't bad, but it's nowhere near the control he exhibited in Japan.

Whether it's adjusting to a 5-man-rotation, major league umpires or a new workout regiment, Daisuke's BB/9 innings pitched is up significantly from the 1.64 he posted last year in Japan. Such lapses in control are rather normal for pitchers transitioning to the major leagues and they almost always go down. Other than the walks, he's pitched relatively similar to the way he did last year. His K/9 IP ratio has gone down by only 0.36.