1. Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. And who has the best pitching staff in the league? That's right, the Red Sox. They have arguably the best rotation in the American League (the Angels might have a case as well). Still, it's incomparable to the Yankees pitching staff, ranked in the middle of the pack in team ERA. And Yankee Stadium's 13% harder to score a run in than Fenway Park.
Remember the great duo of Pedro and Schilling that lead the Red Sox to a World Series in 2004? At this point in the season that year, they were 26-10, with a 3.80 ERA. This year's duo of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka is 28-13 with a 3.42 ERA. And both of those pitchers are on schedule to pitch at Yankee Stadium later this month.
Away from the hitting friendly atmosphere of Fenway Park, Josh Beckett is 8-1 with a 1.65 ERA. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 7-5 with a 2.99 ERA. Four of those losses were quality starts however (at least 6 innings pitched while giving up 3 runs or less).
2. Gagne's a bonus, not a necessity. The Red Sox bullpen leads the league in ERA. And they did that without any help at all from Gagne. Boston native, Manny Delcarmen has really stepped us as a premiere relief pitcher. With his 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strikeout an inning, he could easily take Gagne's role, helping Okajima set up for Papelbon.
Delcarmen, Okajima and Papelbon are merely half of the 6 relief pitchers the Red Sox have with an ERA of 3.50 or better. The others include Lopez, Snyder and 41-year-old Timlin. Don't look now, but Timlin appears to have found a fountain of youth. He's lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.38. He's allowed a run in only one of his last 14 appearances.
3. The bats aren't anything to scoff at either. The Red Sox are fifth in the league in AVG, second in OBP and third in SLG. Coco Crisp's resurgence isn't a new story. Since the All-Star break, he's hit .296/.379/.417. What are some newer stories however are the resurgences of Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Lugo's hit .325/.360/.436 since the All-Star and has this month to thank for it. In August he's been red hot, to a tune of a .341 AVG.
J.D. Drew hasn't been quite as much of a disappointment as Julio Lugo. Even when he was hitting in the mid .200's he was getting on base .100 points higher and his defense has been solid. In August, Drew is hitting .433 and getting on base in half of his at bats. Perhaps most encouraging of all is his returning power. He's slugged .600.
4. The Yankees are human. They've gone 30-10 in their last 40 games, but that's an impossible pace to play at. They're playing the best baseball that they'll likely play all season, and they're still back 4 games. The YES announcers today noted how all the Yankees hitters have gotten hot at the exact same time, but such is not the nature of hitting. Unlike pitching, hitting goes through dramatic periods of hot and cold, and going into September, the Yankees are due for some regression.
Not to mention, their white hot bats have worked to mask some rising pitching woes. Since the All-Star break, Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang has gone 4-2 with a 5.93 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Wang has had uncharacteristic control struggles while his ground out to fly out ratio has regressed from 2.78 to 1.63.
And Wang's not the only Yankees starter to struggle of late. After getting off to a good start with the Yankees, Roger Clemens has gone 2-2 since the All-Star break with a 4.45 ERA. And Phil Hughes, billed as the Yankees ace of the future, has gone 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA.
Their bullpen was also left with a lot of question marks, after Cashman dealt off much of their bullpen depth. The Yankees have struggled with their middle relief all season, and they go into September having dealt away Mike Meyers, who lead the team in ERA, and Scott Proctor, who had the team's 5th best ERA. The Yankees may have found a legitimate set up man in Joba Chamberlain. Now they have to find a way to get to him.
5. Reinforcements are on the way! Unlike the Yankees, who were desperate enough to call up their young talent already, the Red Sox will be getting some upgrades come September. Perhaps the most exciting call up will be Clay Buchholz, who is likely to get his first major league start this Friday. Buchholz lead the Eastern League in both ERA and strikeouts before being promoted to Triple-A where he owns an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.02 in 6 starts. He's also struck out 14 batters per 9 innings of work.
And for the first time this season, the Red Sox will be getting a legitimate pinch runner off the bench in Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury has mind boggling speed and defensive ability. He had no trouble handling the majors earlier this season when he hit .375 and got on base at a rate of .444 in limited at bats.
