Saturday, August 18, 2007

Is Buchholz the Next Papelbon?

In 2005, with the Red Sox in the heart of a pennant race, they got a boost from a 24-year-old righty named Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon first came up as a starter on the last day of July for a spot start. Papelbon was then recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket in mid-August but he didn't stay a starter for long. The Red Sox, in need of bullpen help, and wanting to limit the young pitcher's innings, were quick to move Papelbon to the bullpen.

The Red Sox did go on to make the playoffs, finishing the season with an identicle record to the Yankees. However, they then went on to be swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Chicago White Sox. It was no fault of Jonathan Papelbon though. Papelbon pitched four scoreless innings in the postseason of 2005, allowing only two baserunners.

A couple years later, 23-year-old righty Clay Buchholz may find himself playing a similar role down the stretch. Like they did with Papelbon, the Red Sox would like to limit the innings pitched by Buchholz. And one way they could do so and get some value out of him down the stretch, would be to add him to the bullpen.

Buchholz could likely find success in such a roll. One reason why Jonathan Papelbon made such a good reliever was because his superb control. In his minor league career, Papelbon walked only 2.53 batters per nine innings of work. Buchholz has been even better in that category, walking only 2.34 batters per nine innings. Papelbon also demonstrated an ability to strike batters out, striking out 9.71 batters per nine innings of work. Buchholz trumps Papelbon in this category as well. In his minor league career, Buchholz has struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings of work.

Both players came to the major leagues with about the same amount of experience in the upper levels of the minor leagues. In 2005, Papelbon pitched 87 innings at the Double-A level, before being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket where he pitched 27.1 innings. This year, Buchholz has pitched 86.2 innings at the Double-A level and 30.1 innings at the Triple-A level.

Buchholz has made one relief appearance this year with Double-A Portland.

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