Tomorrow, Terry Francona is to announce who will be starting game two of Friday's double header against the Angels. Multiple sources are reporting that it will be super prospect Clay Buchholz. And with Julian Tavarez pitching two innings in today's game, all major league options for a spot starter appear to be exhausted. The Red Sox have reportedly been planning on using Buchholz since last Saturday, so what's taken so long? They want to free up a roster spot first.It appears that the Red Sox are on the verge of dealing Wily Mo Pena. He would be the logical choice, as he cleared waivers last Tuesday and can now be dealt. It wouldn't be much of a surprise as the Red Sox have been looking to unload the defensively challenged outfielder for some time. Pena is to be replaced by Bobby Kielty, currently waiting to be called up from Pawtucket. And as soon as Buchholz makes his major league debut and is sent back down, Kielty will be called up.
Buchholz is certainly something to be excited about. In the words of Rotoworld, "Buchholz is among the elite pitching prospects in baseball and has moved very quickly this season." I could spend plenty of time talking about the 23-year-old right-hander (his birthday was yesterday) but I think his numbers speak for themselves.
2005 (Low Single-A) - 41.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.40 H/9 IP, 1.96 BB/9 IP, 9.80 K/9 IP
2006 (High Single-A) - 16 IP, 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 5.63 H/9 IP, 2.25 BB/9 IP, 12.94 K/9 IP
2006 (High Single-A) - 103 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.82 H/9 IP, 2.53 BB/9 IP, 10.22 K/9 IP
2007 (Double-A) - 86.2 IP, 1.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.71 H/9 IP, 2.28 BB/9 IP, 12.05 K/9 IP
2007 (Triple-A) - 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.82 H/9 IP, 2.37 BB/9, 14.24 K/9
No red flags. When trying to estimate how a pitching prospect may adjust to the majors, I generally look at a few things. First and foremost, I look at their BB/9 IP numbers. The most common issue with prospects when they're first promoted is that their control suffers from the nerves. Buchholz has very solid, consistent walk rates however.
Another thing to look for is how they translate to the Double-A level when their first promoted. The jump from Single-A to Double-A is typically the highest jump in talent level that a minor league pitcher goes through. Because of that, it can sometimes give you an idea as to how a pitcher will adjust to a jump in the level of competition. Buchholz was solid in that department as well. In fact, in his first Double-A level, Buchholz lead his league in ERA and strikeouts before being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket.
It's unclear what role Buchholz will play on the major league team once the rosters expand in September. The Red Sox have maintained that they will remain very cautious with his innings. If they do so, they'd likely shut him down before the end of September. So if you're wondering what minor leaguers will play a large roll with the Red Sox in September, Jacoby Ellsbury is a much safer bet. Things could change however if Buchholz impresses with the Red Sox in the heart of a playoff race.
5 comments:
I remember reading somewhere that he only had like 30 inning left on the meter before the shut him down...
It kills me to give up on a guy with WMP's potential, but they have to—there's just nowhere for him to play. Once they signed Drew, they should've dealt Pena. Now I feel like they are going to get pennies on the dollar for him.
The Red Sox definitely could have gotten better value out of him if they dealt him before this season. I don't think anyone anticipated such a drop off in production however. And he was trying to hard to improve his defense in spring training as well.
I have a feeling Wily Mo could do really well as a regular, on the offensive side of the ball at least. He did very well last year when he got regular playing time. Before last year, his best season offensively came in the season in which he played the most (110 games).
Dealing him to a team that could us him every day might make the Red Sox look a little foolish because I think he'd produce in that role. Regardless, I think it's clear that it's what's best for the team right now.
I've found Wiley Mo too infuriating for words. I think I like the guy but when the opposition just has to throw curves at him and 9/10 he'll strike out or look silly .... well.
I just popped over from soxaholix. Like your site. Goodonya.
His power is a given, and he DID hit .300 last year in a more regular role.
He will never progress as a player for the Sox as things stand, and he is clearly not enough of a contact guy to succeed as a pinch-hitter, nor will his defense ever improve on the pine.
While I'd love for him to progress for the Sox to replace Manny one day, that is a long way off—in actual time, and amount of improvement required.
By all accounts, he is a good kid and a hard worker. Do him a favor and send him somewhere he can play. It's too bad this is happening when his value is down, that's all.
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